Jev can date video games to the year, not memes

Asked which of two things came first (games, software, companies, memes, historical events), how close in time can they be before Jev loses track, and does that depend on what they are?

result8,445 questions

Given two video games released within five years of each other, Jev says which came first 97% of the time; for software and products, 84%; for internet memes, 74%.

60%80%100%

video games

software and products

internet memes

Jev

How to read this: Each row is one kind of thing. The magenta square is how often Jev put two of them in the right order when they were 1 to 5 years apart, and the line through it is the likely range.

781 pairs 1-5 years apart, 8,445 pairs in all; 90% intervals over pairs. With all gaps pooled, accuracy climbs from 88% at 1-5 years to 98% at 100+ years.

In short

For things dated within five years of each other, Jev's memory depends on the kind of thing: video games almost always in the right order (97%), internet memes about three times in four (74%).
The further apart two things are, the easier it gets, from 88% at 1 to 5 years to 98% at a century or more.
The pattern follows how much gets written about a thing, and when; video game release dates are everywhere, a meme's start rarely is.

What the data shows

Wolverine Remember meme: when that meme came out

For pairs released or founded 1 to 5 years apart:

Video games: 97% (likely range 95% to 98%, 357 pairs). Jev knows the release order of games in detail.
Software and products: 84% (81% to 88%, 304 pairs).
Internet memes: 74% (68% to 81%, only 120 pairs). On "Please, come to Brazil" versus "Draw My Life", Jev leans toward the wrong one.

Across all kinds, accuracy climbs with the gap: 88% at 1 to 5 years, 93% at 6 to 10, 98% at 100 years or more.

What it means, and what it doesn't

Jev's memory for dates follows how much has been written about a thing: video games, with release dates on every wiki and review, are dated almost perfectly; memes, which appear and spread without a clear start, much less so. The same pattern shows up when it judges which meme is more famous.

It says nothing about dates written into a question, which is a different (and documented) weakness.

Caveats

Dates are recalled, not given. TypeSafe documents that Jev is weak at comparing dates written in the question. Here the dates aren't given; Jev has to remember them, so this measures memory of when things happened.
Disputed dates. When an internet meme "appeared" or a historical state was "founded" can be arguable, and Wikidata picks one date. Some misses on memes may be the key's fault.
Small group for memes. Only 120 meme pairs fall within five years of each other, so that number has a wide interval (68% to 81%).

Jev on this experiment

Would a person find it interesting to read?: Yes75%
Does it describe you?: No64%
Would you have predicted it?: No51%
How fair is the comparison?: The comparison is reasonable
How much should a reader rely on it?: Moderately
Which caveat matters most?: Dates are recalled, not given75%

Why ask this

Which came out first, Portal or Half-Life 2? Did "Draw My Life" videos come before or after the "Please, come to Brazil" comments? Nobody looks these up, but a model answering questions about games, products or internet culture leans on this kind of sense of order all the time.

Knowing roughly when something happened is also a sign of how densely a model has read about it. Holding the gap in years fixed and switching what's being dated shows which worlds it knows in fine detail and which only in outline.

How this was done

The people and the data

No people; the dates come from Wikidata (CC0): release dates of video games and software, founding dates of companies and states, dates of historical events, births, and when internet memes appeared. 8,445 pairs in all, 781 of them within five years of each other (357 video game pairs, 304 of software and products, 120 of memes).

What Jev was asked

Two-option questions:

Which internet meme appeared first: "Please, come to Brazil" or "Draw My Life"?
Draw My Life: type of internet video · Please, come to Brazil: Brazilian internet meme

Each was also asked with the two options in the other order.

How it was measured

Accuracy by the gap in years between the two things, and, for pairs 1 to 5 years apart, by kind of thing, with 90% intervals.

Where these questions live

8,445 questions across 76 topics of the map; the 16 biggest are shown. Each opens on the map with every question in it.

Every question

All 8,445 questions behind this result, the telling ones first: the examples the analysis points to, then the ones where Jev misses, biggest gap first.

Jev’s own answer

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